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Myth of the monolithic Latino Vote: Pollsters failed to anticipate diverse views based on national origins

By Lisa García Bedolla, Vice Provost for Graduate Studies and Dean of the Graduate Division, Professor of Education, University of California, Berkeley Pundits have expressed surprise that so many Latinos voted for Donald Trump. But pollsters who specialize in the Latino vote knew for months before the election that Latino support for Biden was soft, with many Latinos – especially in Florida – undecided. In Florida 57% of Latinos ultimately supported Biden, compared to roughly 70% nationwide. These numbers are reliable because they come from exit polls designed to capture Latino political preferences. National exit polls have been mostly...

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Trump targets Democratic strongholds in Wisconsin to toss out 170,000 in-person absentee ballots

The president’s team wants to toss 170,000 in-person absentee ballots in Dane and Milwaukee counties, experts call the effort a long shot. It may feel like 2016 all over again for some Wisconsin election officials: a presidential contender wins by about a 20,000-vote margin, there is a nearly even partisan divide and with Thanksgiving around the corner, workers are beginning a recount. But this recount differs in one key respect. President Donald Trump’s campaign is not just looking for an accurate count of votes. The primary aim is to separate out and invalidate tens of thousands of ballots in...

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Milwaukee recount stumbles ahead as Trump campaign acts in bad faith by trying to reject every ballot

After the utter debacle on November 20, which saw the first day of counting held up by Trump campaign lawyers for more than 6 hours after counting was scheduled to begin, Day Two started with more clarity and the framework for a streamlined process. The problem of Trump observers clustering around tables and intimidating poll workers was eased as a single person limit was enforced on November 21. Each counting table had three observation spots, one for a Trump observer, one for a Biden observer, and one for a non-affiliated observer like the ACLU. Even if a third spot...

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Partisan Tension: Why Wisconsin’s 2020 recount is so different from the harmonious process of 2016

Partisan tensions remain high in Wisconsin as the state begins a partial presidential recount in two counties that helped deliver the state to President-elect Joe Biden. It is Wisconsin’s second presidential recount in as many elections, but the circumstances in 2020 are far different than they were in 2016, with a sitting president asking for the recount, and the state and national Republican Party apparatus firmly behind him. Trump’s campaign paid $3 million to conduct the recount in Wisconsin’s Democratic strongholds — Milwaukee and Dane counties — alleging poll workers mishandled absentee ballots despite following advice given to them...

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