Russia’s disinformation campaign toward Finland mirrors the buildup to its brutal invasion of Ukraine

In its most recent intelligence assessment, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a stark warning that Russia has begun repurposing its disinformation playbook, previously used to justify invasions of Ukraine, to target Finland, a NATO member as of 2023.

The Kremlin’s rhetoric has shifted into overdrive, accusing Finland of genocide, Nazism, and expansionist goals. Such accusations mirror the false justifications Putin used to initiate Russian military aggression in Crimea in 2014 and across Ukraine in 2022.

According to ISW, the escalation in hostile messaging toward Finland is not an isolated development. It forms part of a deliberate strategy to lay the groundwork, both ideologically and diplomatically, for potential future aggression against NATO members, under the guise of “self-defense” and “historical justice.”

KREMLIN MESSAGING GROWS HOSTILE

On September 8, former Russian president and current Security Council chair Dmitry Medvedev published a widely circulated opinion piece through Kremlin-aligned news outlet TASS, warning that conflict with Russia could result in “the collapse of Finnish statehood forever.”

Medvedev directly accused Finland of historical alliance with Nazi Germany and alleged that Helsinki harbored ambitions to annex Russian territory, naming Eastern Karelia, St. Petersburg (formerly Leningrad), and the Kola Peninsula.

In a stream of inflammatory and unsubstantiated propaganda, Medvedev painted the Finnish government as Russophobic, ideologically rooted in fascism, and bent on waging war. He claimed Finland’s integration into NATO was not defensive, but a covert step toward launching aggression against Russia.

ISW analysts noted that Medvedev’s assertions are not original. Instead, they are “near-verbatim echoes” of Kremlin narratives used to justify its brutal war against Ukraine. These include historically revisionist claims about Nazi affiliations, fabricated charges of genocide against ethnic Russians, and conspiratorial theories about NATO orchestrating armed conflict.

SAME PROPAGANDA SCRIPT, DIFFERENT TARGET

The ISW’s comparative analysis draws attention to a key throughline in Russian strategy. It is the deliberate use of disinformation and historical distortion to cultivate support — both domestically and abroad — for military escalation.

In Ukraine, Russian officials repeatedly claimed that Kyiv was conducting “genocide” against Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas and suppressing cultural identity. Now, similar language is being deployed against Finland.

Russian Presidential Aide Nikolai Patrushev, a longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin, earlier accused Finland of attempting to “exterminate” Slavic populations. In December 2023, Putin himself stated that NATO had “dragged” Finland into its ranks, and ominously warned that there would be “consequences.”

ISW interprets these remarks as evidence that Russia is setting “informational conditions” for a potential military confrontation. In other words, the Kremlin is not just reacting to NATO expansion. It is actively constructing a narrative in which Finland is the aggressor and Russia the victim. This tactic mirrors the prelude to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

FINLAND’S NATO MEMBERSHIP RAISED THE STAKES

Finland joined NATO in April 2023 after decades of military nonalignment, a seismic geopolitical shift triggered by Russia’s unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine. With a border stretching more than 800 miles alongside Russia, Finland’s accession added significant strategic depth to the alliance and drew immediate ire from the Kremlin.

Rather than confront Finland militarily, which would trigger Article 5 collective defense, Russia has focused on hybrid tactics, including disinformation campaigns, economic pressure, and veiled threats. The use of state media and official rhetoric to cast Finland as a Nazi collaborator or territorial aggressor is a classic example of this softer but no less dangerous approach.

The ISW emphasizes that this narrative construction is not accidental. “Russia’s invocation of World War II tropes and accusations of cultural erasure are designed to resonate with domestic audiences who remain deeply conditioned by Soviet-era memory politics,” the report states. At the same time, these claims seek to undermine NATO cohesion by casting doubt on new members’ intentions.

FALSE HISTORY, REAL CONSEQUENCES

The Kremlin’s attempt to recast Finnish history is not just offensive, it is strategic. By falsely asserting that Finland committed genocide or allied with Hitler, Russian officials aim to delegitimize its NATO membership and paint future conflict as morally justified. The ISW draws a direct line between these historical fabrications and the justifications used for Crimea’s annexation and the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Analysts say the logic is familiar. Russia identifies a neighbor, claims that its government is illegitimate or fascist, invokes vague historical grievances, and claims a moral imperative to intervene. What’s different now is the target, and the stakes.

If Russia applies this disinformation model to other NATO states — such as Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania — it could further destabilize the alliance and provoke broader confrontation. The targeting of Finland may be a test case in that wider campaign.

KREMLIN RHETORIC TRIGGERS LOCAL ALARM IN MILWAUKEE

In Milwaukee, where rallies supporting Ukraine drew hundreds to downtown intersections in early 2022, the shift in Russian propaganda toward Finland has raised familiar alarms. Activists who once waved blue-and-yellow flags outside the Federal Courthouse say they are seeing the same tropes now redirected at another neighbor of Russia. They fear the consequences could be just as grave.

“These aren’t new tactics. They’re just being recycled,” said Oksana, a member of Milwaukee’s Ukrainian American community who asked not to be identified due to her family still living near parts of Russian-occupied Ukraine.

She said local community members have been tracking Russian state media commentary for years, long before Putin’s full-scale invasion, and see “an identical formula” aimed at Finland. Putin is portraying a sovereign nation as fascist, erasing context about NATO accession, and twisting history to frame future aggression as preemptive.

“Russia just swaps the country name and keeps the script,” She said. “First, it was Ukraine. Now it’s Finland. It’s only a matter of time before it’s another NATO country.”

This sentiment is echoed in U.S. intelligence circles. The ISW report underlined that Russian messaging is not just a historical distortion, but a form of psychological conditioning. When repeated over time, these narratives shape public expectations — both in Russia and abroad — about who bears responsibility for conflict.

That technique has been effective. In 2014, the annexation of Crimea caught much of the international community off guard. Russia’s claims of protecting Russian-speaking populations were not strongly challenged until after the occupation was complete. By 2022, when the full-scale war began, Moscow had already spent eight years seeding the idea that Ukraine was inherently hostile to ethnic Russians.

Now, as Russia is training that same disinformation arsenal on Finland, some analysts worry that NATO states may again be slow to react.

FINLAND’S UNIQUE STRATEGIC POSITION

Finland is not Ukraine. As a NATO member, any overt military attack against Finnish territory would trigger Article 5 — a collective response from all members, including the United States.

But analysts stress that Russia’s strategy doesn’t rely solely on tanks or missiles. Instead, the Kremlin may seek to provoke political instability through cyberattacks, energy pressure, border provocations, and information warfare — all beneath the threshold of conventional war.

Already, Russia has redeployed troops closer to its northern border, and announced military exercises near Finnish airspace. Earlier this year, Moscow cut off natural gas supplies to Finland in retaliation for its NATO application.

In November 2023, Finnish authorities accused Russia of pushing asylum seekers across the border in a coordinated campaign to destabilize local infrastructure and political support.

“It’s important not to mistake silence for stability,” said one Baltic security expert quoted in the ISW assessment. “Russia doesn’t announce its next move. It prepares the ground and waits for the right moment to strike.”

IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. SECURITY AND DIPLOMACY

While Finland may seem distant to many Americans, the implications of Moscow’s targeting campaign carry weight in U.S. policy circles. Lawmakers on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have already raised concerns about Russian activity around NATO’s northeastern flank. The Department of Defense has increased surveillance and cyber readiness for joint military exercises in the region.

For Milwaukee — a city thousands of miles removed but deeply tied to international events through diaspora communities and military deployments — the story unfolding in Finland is both distant and deeply familiar. It is a test of how prepared democratic nations are to respond to hybrid Russian threats, especially those that unfold in the shadows of conventional warfare.

ISW concludes its report by warning that “Russia’s disinformation architecture is not reactive, it is preparatory.” The lies come first, making it easier for the weapons to follow.