Betting on Everything: How prediction markets turned death and geopolitics into a game for profit
When a U.S. fighter jet was shot down by Iran earlier in April, and an American airman needed rescue, users on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, were already placing bets on what day he would be recovered. That market briefly assigned odds to the rescue before pulling the wager after public backlash. Representative Seth Moulton, D-MA, a former Marine, called it a “dystopian death market.” The platform called it a lapse in “integrity standards.” What neither could deny was that the betting had already happened. The episode is one of the most visible flashpoints in a growing national...
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